ࡱ> VXU z'jbjb .Fooz +2(>>>>v+x+x+x+x+x+x+-/vx+x+#>>+###!>>v+#v+##V*@N+_L6!N* j+ +0+*x1#1N+#N+D d:    2. THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION: SOCIAL CHALLENGES FOR A SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT A recent study of the United Nations indicates that in the year 2050, the world population will include almost two billion people over 60 years of age, corresponding to about 22% of the total.In 2150 there could be even up to 1,2 billion over 80 (one out of ten). The majority will live in those countries we define today as developing. Keeping this figure in mind, we propose here a number of key considerations, most of which are dealt with in deeper detail in the European Papers on the New Welfare (  HYPERLINK "http://www.newwelfare.org" www.newwelfare.org ): the first question is of course to identify the maximum potential length of the life cycle: most demographers and gerontologists agree around the age of 120 years: some consider that in fact, almost always, the end of life is in fact a premature death ; the lengthening of the life cycle is a unique revolutionary phenomenon, having a profound impact on contemporary and future societies . It concerns the social, political and economic institutions in a far deeper sense that is still commonly perceived; the present trend in the lengthening of the life cycle would also imply the recognition of a new right: the right to longevity; people in older age, over 60, 70 and 80 have always existed. But they were special cases representing a minute minority. Now the lengthening of the life cycle concerns the majority of the population. It is a mass phenomenon. An analogy can be found in the economic history of the industrialized countries: from the beginning of the twentieth century, the poor (and the illiterate) have become a minority after centuries of being a majority; it is important to stress that the lengthening of the life cycle is a world wide phenomenon. From the older industrialized countries it is extending to the large majority of communities, everywhere. The contribution from the developing and industrializing countries to the over 60 population in the world will be determinant and overwhelming; the lengthening of the life cycle is often presented (wrongly) as the problem of ageing of population, and as such as an indication of decay of the industrialized world: in fact, the older countries have the great advantage of both offering a longer ( and better ) life to their citizens and of advancing in the delicate social, economic and political adaptations required by the new demographic reality. Such problems and experiences will increasingly concern the rest of the world; what is really ageing is the notion of older age itself. Taking into consideration the ability of each individual to be autonomous (in physical and/or mental terms), many studies and surveys indicate that on average a 60 or even an 80 year old person of today, corresponds to a person about 15/20 years younger living a century and more ago. Statistics based not on age but on capacity to perform, indicate in fact that in many countries, the population is not ageing but rejuvenating. In fact we live in a Counter-ageing society; the lengthening of the life cycle is clearly the result of economic and social advances strictly linked to scientific and technological advances: biology, medicine, health control, nano technologies, nuclear applications, communication, instrumentations etc. are all now producing almost every year significant advances for the human body and its maintenance; we would also strongly recommend considering as key indicators of the Wealth of Nations, the data concerning life expectancy, as well as its quality. In this direction the WHO has set up an international classification of functioning, disability and health, which defines and quantifies the capacity of individuals in terms of their autonomy, capacity to adapt and education. It is the reverse of just quantifying the levels of illnesses. In some of these studies, middle age is defined as being between 45 and 59 years of age, maturity between 60 and 75, old age after 75; the lengthening of the life cycle, in all its aspects, is clearly then the fundamental issue to keep in mind when discussing social policies. The lengthening of the life cycle implies of course redefining the period of the ACTIVE life: many studies and statistics of the WHO (World Health Organization), among others, are devoted to this issue. active life should be considered under two different categories: remunerated work on one side and unpaid or benevolent activities on the other. In fact the two are complementary, and this more and more so in the post-industrial Service Economy; concerning remunerated work and employment, the lengthening of the life cycle implies the open possibility (and in many instances the necessity) of extending the retirement age. At the time the first provisions for retirement were fixed at the average age of death, very close to the end of the working life. Today, at the age of retirement, in many countries, life expectancy tends to reach 15 to 20 years; satisfactory employment, based on adequate formation and education systems (including preparing to change type of jobs according to age conditions), is in a majority of cases the condition for having a healthier life ; at the basis of this: enhance HUMAN CAPITAL at all ages it is very important to consider and promote part-time employment as a basic element for a well balanced social security system: among others, it is an important issue for all those working over 60 and 65. As happens in some northern European countries, part time pensions will be more and more coupled with partial work. The gradual retirement plans and the perspective of the four pillars system are also important (on this point see  HYPERLINK "http://www.genevaassociation.org" www.genevaassociation.org), based on the three pillars of the Swiss system plus the fourth pillar referring to partial employment; the political, social and economic systems will of necessity require great adaptations, although many of these are already underway, more than is normally perceived. For instance most systems oscillate between a state run economy and a private one: Sweden and the United States are not so far away from a 50%-50% repartition. Complementarities and synergies between the two systems are more and more obvious: state pensions based on redistribution (and various forms of fiscal repartition) are one pillar which necessitates being balanced by capitalized systems. Some forms of integration with health will increasingly develop. health improvements necessarily produce in fact a great increase in costs: one could die almost for free in a not so distant past, and one has to pay for the possibility of controlling , eliminating or reducing the effects of all sorts of illnesses or accidents. We already spend a lot of money on buying and using an automobile which allows us to move (sometimes) faster: we will probably one day spend even more for our health maintenance, which allows us to live and move from an economic point of view, retirement and health costs imply the building of financial capabilities, under the form of redistribution (de facto: fiscal systems) and under the form of savings (or reserves). We have here to do with nothing less than a new definition of the notion of Capital (its building and utilisation) in the post-industrial Service Economy; the final message would be: the lengthening of the life cycle is not a disaster, but a chance. Education should be extended beyond 60 and 70. Being active and carrying out productive activities (sometimes, remunerated partial or even full work) is a priviledge which should be shared more and more. Older people must be willing to remain younger, society must eliminate or at least limit barriers to age to benefit from the accumulated human capital.* *See: Orio Giarini and Mircea Malitza, The Double Helix of Learning and Work, UNESCO-CEPES, Bucharest, 2003 ( 169 p.) Y Z z'÷èhPx0JmH sH jhPxUmH sH jhPxUmH sH hPxmH sH hK${mH sH h_ 0JmH sH jh_ UmH sH jh_ UmH sH h_ mH sH [\ Z 6 K7PUK^gdPx & F & Fh^hgdPx & FgdPxd!#%%&c'd'e'f'g'h'i'j'k'm'n'o'p's't'u'v'w'x'z' 9!^h^h & F&d P  & F,1h. 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